The addition of tariffs between China and the United States has led the two countries to import affected goods from ASEAN, with Malaysia and Vietnam benefiting the most. However, China and the United States also increased its exports to ASEAN, offsetting the benefits of these countries.
Malaysian bank Jinying Securities economists Cai Xuemin, Li Zongli and Liu Ruochun jointly issued a report on Monday (8th) that the United States reduced imports of goods subject to tariffs from China, which fell 21% year-on-year to 72.1 billion 9500 in the first four months of this year. Ten thousand dollars ($98.17 billion). Among them, imports of solar panels produced in China fell significantly, reaching 53%.
China’s imports of tariffed goods from the United States also fell, with a decline of 31% to $32.647 billion in the first five months of this year. China has even stopped importing some commodities such as liquefied butane and ore.
The ASEAN countries that produce these products have therefore become the beneficiaries. In the first four months of this year, the affected goods imported by the United States from ASEAN increased by 3.6% year-on-year. China’s imports of goods from ASEAN in April and May this year increased by 6.8%.
Among these commodities, the main products exported to the United States are electronic products such as solar panels, electronic conductors and primary batteries. Consumer products include furniture, handbags, and suitcases. Vietnam is the biggest winner. This year’s exports to the United States in the first four months of this year increased by 29% year-on-year to US$7.77 billion.
In contrast, China imports less, mainly importing commodities such as gasoline and chemicals from Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Malaysia has benefited the most, with related products exported to China in the first five months of this year increasing by 11% year-on-year to US$12.78 billion.
However, the United States reduced its purchases to China, causing Chinese manufacturers to have too much inventory, and they dumped these goods to other countries, including ASEAN.
China’s exports to ASEAN have also increased, causing Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam to impose anti-dumping duties on China.
The report pointed out that the United States imposed a 25% and 10% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum products in March last year. Subsequently, China’s steel products exported to the ASEAN countries in the second quarter of last year and aluminum products exported to Vietnam and Malaysia showed significant growth.
After the Vietnam investigation, it was found that the local aluminum products industry suffered serious losses. Therefore, it announced last month that it imposed temporary anti-dumping duties on Chinese aluminum products. Indonesia and Malaysia have imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products since March this year.
China launched a retaliatory action, starting with a 25% tariff on US soybeans in July last year, prompting American merchants to sell large quantities of soybeans to other countries such as Japan, Mexico, Taiwan, Thailand, and Myanmar.
The ASEAN countries benefited from the Sino-US trade war, but some parts of the region were also damaged by the dumping behavior of China and the United States.
In Li Zili’s view, this is only part of the elements of the trade war that affects other countries’ economies. Overall, the impact of the trade war on ASEAN is negative.
When she accepted the “Lianhe Zaobao” interview, she said: “The negative impact of the Sino-US trade war on ASEAN, and the increased trade and investment interests of the two countries from the two countries are still serious. The interference in the trade environment is the primary consideration, and the trade turn is secondary. “”
She pointed out that although Vietnam and Malaysia increased its trade with China and the United States, the overall export volume was worse than last year. The United States also imposed a tariff of more than 400% on a number of steel products exported from Vietnam and South Korea and Taiwan. In March last year, the United States also increased tariffs on Chinese steel products ordered from Vietnam.
“If the production supply chain changes and the production facilities are moved to ASEAN, these countries may become real winners in the long run.”