According to information released by the World Organisation for Animal Health on October 31, China has destroyed 1.2 million pigs since the landing of African swine fever in August last year, and a quarter of the pigs on the planet will suffer the same fate. As the world ’s largest pork consumer, China produces and consumes two-thirds of the world ’s total pork, and pork prices have nearly doubled compared to the same year ago. China must increase its import quota from abroad, and the occurrence of African swine fever in other countries has also pushed the international market price of pork and its related products to continue to rise. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China in October, China imported nearly 162,000 tons of pork in September this year, a year-on-year increase of 71.6%; the amount reached more than 2.5 billion yuan, more than 2.5 times the same period last year. In the first three quarters, China imported about 1.326 million tons of pork, a year-on-year increase of 43.6%; the amount exceeded 18.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.6%. Obviously, the African swine fever epidemic in China and the spread of the epidemic in other countries have led to rising international pork prices, while supplies have gradually become scarce.
In response, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations released a semiannual Food Outlook report on Thursday that it was mainly affected by the spread of African swine fever in China and other East Asian countries. It is expected that global meat production will fall by 1% in 2019. This is the first decline in more than 20 years. The report also revealed that global meat production will fall to 335 million tons in 2019, a significant decline from the approximately 337 million tons predicted in May. This means that the steady increase in global meat production over the past 20 years has been broken. China’s meat output is expected to fall by 8% year-on-year. Among them, the annual output of pork may be reduced by 20%, and the output of poultry will rise rapidly, and it is expected to grow by 17% year-on-year. Meat production in other regions such as the United States, Brazil, the European Union and Argentina is expected to be good.
Also in China’s analysis of the current pork shortage trend, Justin Sherrard, a global meat food protein strategic analyst from Rabobank, proposed that this year, it is inevitable that China ’s pork imports will exceed historical records. The import volume will be 310 Between 10,000 and 3.3 million tons (including pig offal), imports last year were 2.1 million tons. Rabobank believes that due to consideration of various factors, the recovery of China’s domestic pig industry will not occur until 2021 at the earliest. Until then, Chinese pork production will continue to decline. This year will be a quarter less than last year, about 4.05 million tons, and another 10 to 15 percentage points next year. At the same time, China ’s demand for pork and other meat products is expected to gradually increase with the coming of the Lunar New Year and other holidays. This mega trend has also given many food exporters in Europe and South America good trade opportunities.
Just this Wednesday, China’s state-owned agricultural group COFCO stated that it has signed a supply agreement with European pork producer Danish Crown, and will purchase 100 million U.S. dollars of pork from it by 2020, introducing European pork to China to alleviate tight pork supply . In addition, China announced on November 6 the resumption of pork imports from Canada. In South America, many related meat food export companies have recently been qualified to sell to China, including beef and chicken food suppliers such as Argentina and Brazil. The data shows that Brazil exported 1.64 million tons of beef in 2018, and Mainland China followed Hong Kong as the second largest importer of Brazilian beef in that year, buying 19.3% of them. Brazil is expected to export 1.8 million tons of beef this year.
A person in charge of the Brazilian meat food company Frigol Group said, “China is the most profitable market for Brazilian farms.” However, in response to the possible impact of African swine fever on Chinese pork consumers, analysts at Girobank in the UK have suggested that after this swine fever, pork prices have soared, and many consumers will abandon pork and switch to beef. And poultry. The bank believes that the decline in pork demand is to a certain extent permanent and will not fully recover.