According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on May 7, after a double-digit year-on-year decline in the first quarter, Chinese goods trade exports ushered in a recovery growth in April, with Chinese exports increasing by 8.2% year-on-year; 10.2%, the trade surplus increased by 2.6 times.
According to the data, in the first four months of this year, the total value of China ’s imports and exports of goods was 9.07 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.9% compared with the same period last year (the same below), and the decline was narrowed by 1.5 percentage points from the first quarter. Among them, exports were 4.74 trillion yuan, down 6.4%; imports were 4.33 trillion yuan, down 3.2%; trade surplus was 415.7 billion yuan, down 30.4%. In dollar terms, China ’s imports and exports totaled US $ 1.3 trillion in the first four months, a decrease of 7.5%. Among them, exports were US $ 678.28 billion, down 9%; imports were US $ 620.05 billion, down 5.9%; trade surplus was US $ 58.23 billion, down 32.6%.
In April, China’s foreign trade imports and exports were 2.5 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.7% year-on-year; of which, exports were 1.41 trillion yuan, up 8.2%; imports were 1.09 trillion yuan, down 10.2%; trade surplus was 318.15 billion yuan, up 2.6 times. In dollar terms, China ’s foreign trade imports and exports in April were US $ 355.22 billion, down 5%; of which, exports were US $ 200.28 billion, up 3.5%; imports were US $ 154.94 billion, down 14.2%; trade surplus was US $ 45.34 billion, up 2.5 times. By country, trade between China and ASEAN continues to grow. From January to April, the total trade value between China and ASEAN was 1.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. ASEAN continued to maintain China’s largest trading partner status. Affected by the epidemic, the total trade value of China with the EU, the United States, and Japan was lower than that of the same period last year. Among them, China-EU trade fell by 6.5%, Sino-US trade fell by 12.8%, and Sino-Japanese trade fell by 2.1%, both of which were narrower than the first quarter.
In terms of product categories, the export value of China ’s main products such as mobile phones and other electromechanical products, clothing, toys, shoes, boots, bags and other products under the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic has declined year-on-year in the first four months, but the export value of textiles including masks It rose against the trend, reaching 261.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. In terms of imports, the imports of iron ore, crude oil, coal, natural gas, soybeans and other commodities increased, including crude oil imports of 170 million tons, an increase of 1.7%; coal imports of 130 million tons, an increase of 26.9%.
Regarding the performance of the Chinese economy in the past month, which exceeded the expectations of the outside world, most analysts believe that the global economic recession is already a nail-cut. In this general environment, although China has taken many measures to stabilize foreign trade, its trading partners are also more diversified. Asean has become the largest trading partner, but a negative increase in exports will still be a high probability event. Zhang Yi, chief economist of China Shipping Shengrong, told Reuters, “Considering that new export orders are still weak, the impact of weak external demand in May and even for a period of time will be fed back to exports sooner or later, and future exports will not rule out double-digit negative growth.”
Zhang Yi believes that the unexpected increase in exports is mainly due to the relatively low base of the same period last year; there may be a certain degree of substitution effect, that is, the export competing countries are affected by the epidemic and their production capacity is weakened, and their competitiveness is reduced; the decline in the production capacity of the main export market itself leads to imports Demand has increased; in addition, considering the average daily export of US $ 400 million in medical supplies, it also plays a supporting role in exports. The decline in import demand is expected, indicating that the resumption of production and production is far less than expected. In addition, Wang Jun, chief economist of Centaline Bank, also emphasized that it is necessary to observe the trend over a longer period of time in order not to over-interpret the fluctuations of individual exports in the past months. “In this year’s global economy is likely to enter a recession, the weak foreign trade pattern is difficult It will be repaired soon, and import and export will still face great pressure this year. “