Looking ahead, Lian Pingping, chief economist of the Zhixin Investment Research Institute, said that European and American external demand has switched from “commodities” to “services.” On the other hand, supply disturbances will affect the resilience of China’s exports, and the gradual appreciation of the RMB will also cause a lagging drag on export growth. Coupled with the high export base in the last four months of last year, China’s export growth may slow marginally in the second half of the year. . He also predicted that the growth rate of China’s exports and imports in the third quarter may increase by 15% and 25% respectively, but the growth rate of exports in the fourth quarter may drop by 5%, and the growth rate of imports may be 20%. Up to 15%, the import growth rate may reach 30%.”
Qin Tai believes that the complete recovery path of China’s economy after the impact of the current round of the epidemic has been basically completed. China’s annual GDP growth rate is expected to reach 8.8% year-on-year in 2021. Based on the judgment of the domestic and international economic situation and epidemic prevention and control trends, changes in domestic demand in the second half of the year will affect The influence of the pace of China’s economic recovery is expected to become more and more obvious. “We maintain the judgment that China’s exports will increase by 15% year-on-year and imports will increase by 19% year-on-year in 2021.”
Zhao Wei judged that with the large-scale promotion of vaccines in major overseas economies, the production side is expected to gradually return to normal, and the “capacity substitution” effect is expected to continue to weaken the supporting role of China’s exports. “In the future, we should focus on serving overseas related export trade activities such as industrial production, capital expenditures, and residents going out.”
Liu Xuezhi believes that China’s imports will switch from the “increased volume and price” in the first half of the year to the “stable volume and price” in the second half of the year. Exports in the second half of the year are still expected to continue to have a relatively high degree of prosperity, but due to the “filling-up effect” and “low base effect”. “The year-on-year weakening of exports will show a marginal slowdown in export growth. Based on the above-mentioned judgments, in 2021, China’s exports in US dollars are expected to grow by 13% year-on-year, and imports are expected to grow by 18% year-on-year.