According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 8th, the total value of China’s import and export of goods in the first seven months of this year was 16.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%. Among them, exports were 8.89 trillion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year; imports were 7.83 trillion yuan, up 12.9% year-on-year; the trade surplus was 1.06 trillion yuan, narrowing by 30.6%. Experts believe that in the case of increased external environmental uncertainty, import and export will adjust the layout in the short-term, while domestic demand stability, policy support and other factors are expected to support the import to maintain steady growth.
The export situation in the third quarter is improving.
Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, said that from a fundamental perspective, the global economy continues to maintain a rapid expansion. Among them, the manufacturing PMI of major developed economies such as the US, Europe, and Japan are all in a substantial expansion range, continuing to benefit China. Export trade has grown.
Lian Ping, the chief economist of the Bank of Communications, believes that under the overall recovery of the global economy, the external demand situation remains relatively good, and China’s exports to the United States, Japan, ASEAN, India, Russia and other countries and regions have achieved double-digit growth. Also, since mid-April this year, the RMB has depreciated significantly against the US dollar, which objectively helps to increase the price competitiveness of export products.
CITIC Securities’ fixed income chief analyst Ming Ming said that from the perspective of the country, China’s exports to Southeast Asia grew strongly in July, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.9%; Brazil’s export growth grew by 20.8% year-on-year; Weak, with exports to the UK growing at a rate of -9.9% year-on-year.
Jiang Dongying, an industry research analyst, believes that the overall export growth rate is still expected to remain at around 8%. From a seasonal perspective, the third quarter is the peak season for Christmas order shipments. Enterprises may advance their export pace in the third quarter, that is, Christmas orders will be exported in July and early August. Exports in the fourth quarter may be affected.