China’s service trade deficit in the first quarter fell by 15% year-on-year

China's service trade deficit in the first quarter fell by 15% year-on-year

According to data from China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the trade deficit in the first quarter was US$63.8 billion, down 15% year-on-year. The trade deficit in March was US$20.5 billion, which was basically the same as last month, and it was down 22% from last year’s deficit.

According to the data released by the SAFE, the trade surplus of international goods and services in the first quarter was 29.5 billion U.S. dollars, which changed the state of the deficit of 23.1 billion U.S. dollars in the first quarter of last year. The trade surplus of goods and services in March was 18.3 billion U.S. dollars, reversing the deficit of the previous month and the same period. The scale of trade in goods trade surged.

Data shows that the trade surplus of goods in March was 38.7 billion US dollars, an increase of 355% from the previous month of 8.5 billion US dollars.

In the scale of service trade deficit in March, the travel difference reached 18.1 billion US dollars, accounting for 88%; the transportation difference was 4.3 billion US dollars, accounting for 21%.

The SAFE data also showed that the international trade in goods and services in March had a revenue of US$216.4 billion and expenditures of US$198.2 billion. Among them, the trade in goods trade was US$194.6 billion, and the expenditure was US$155.9 billion. The service trade income was US$21.8 billion. Expenditure was 42.3 billion US dollars, with a deficit of 20.5 billion US dollars.

Guan Tao, a senior researcher at the China Financial Forty Forum, pointed out that the signal of China’s economic bottoming is more obvious. The reduction of foreign trade surplus will not only increase the pressure on RMB depreciation, but will provide stronger support for the stability of the RMB exchange rate. Moreover, with China’s economic prospects improving, RMB stocks and bond assets being included in the global index or increasing weights, the momentum of foreign capital inflows will further accelerate.

China’s latest first-quarter settlement deficit has fallen sharply by 50% year-on-year. Combined with data on foreign exchange and foreign reserves, the capital flow situation in the first quarter has improved significantly. Analysts pointed out that the momentum of improving China’s capital flow situation will continue, and the “fast forward button” will be pressed for the reform of foreign exchange management and the steady and orderly promotion of capital projects.

Ping An Securities’ macro report pointed out that China’s balance of payments may alternate between “one inverse and one smooth” and “double deficit”, which will aggravate the difficulty of the Chinese central bank’s monetary policy operation and further increase the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate and domestic asset prices. Moderate capital account control will be the last firewall to stabilize China’s balance of payments, defend the opening of domestic financial markets, and avoid the outbreak of a systemic financial crisis.

Trade in goods and services refers to trade in goods and services traded between residents and non-residents, and is the same as the balance of payments.

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