The reporter learned from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing that in the first half of 2021, my country’s total social logistics was 150.9 trillion RMB, a comparable increase of 15.7%. The role of industrial and residential consumer logistics demand ballast stones continued to consolidate, and the physical volume of imported logistics continued to increase. The scale of the logistics market continues to expand.
Hu Yan, Director of the Logistics Statistics Department of China Logistics Information Center, explained the logistics situation in the first half of the year. The new crown epidemic in 2020 will have a major impact on the macro economy and logistics operations. In the first half of the year, the logistics operation followed a steady recovery trajectory. The main total indicators were higher than the level before the epidemic, and the total social logistics demand stabilized.
“Looking forward to the second half of the year, the epidemic prevention and control will remain normalized, the supportive role of logistics will become more prominent, and the basic and strategic role will continue to increase.” Hu said that on the basis of the previous year, it is expected that the logistics growth for the whole year will be “high and low”, it is initially estimated that the total social logistics will increase by 9-10% throughout the year.
The scale of the logistics market continues to expand, and the industry maintains a high boom range
According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the total revenue of my country’s logistics industry reached 5.7 trillion RMB in the first half of the year, an increase of 22.8% year-on-year, and an average growth rate of 9.3% in two years. The logistics market is in a recovery period.
Hu Yan said that from the perspective of growth momentum, the development of new business forms and new kinetic energy markets is improving. The growth rate of e-commerce express logistics revenue is still higher than that of traditional fields such as transportation, warehousing, and commerce. The total revenue of animal logistics industry has increased by 2%; In terms of composition, the transportation industry is still the main support, with railway and highway transportation revenue contributing nearly 70% of the logistics industry revenue.
In the first half of the year, the logistics industry’s prosperity index averaged 54.5%, which was in a relatively high range. In the second quarter, it was 55.9%, which was a significant increase from the first quarter. In this regard, Hu Enthal pointed out that the sub-indices reflect that the development of the logistics industry is more balanced, the new order index and the business volume index are not much different, and the large, medium, small and micro enterprises are all located in the higher boom range, and the direction of change is basically the same.
Industrial and people’s livelihood consumption promotes restorative growth in total logistics demand
“From the perspective of the total amount and growth rate, the data is higher than the same period in 2019 before the epidemic.” Hu said that in the first half of the year, the total social logistics in the country was 150.9 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.7% (previous year). In the same period, it was -0.5%), an average growth rate of 7.3% in two years, 0.1% faster than the two-year average growth rate in the first quarter.
In terms of structure, the logistics demand related to people’s livelihood consumption has grown rapidly, and the demand for industrial product logistics has exceeded expectations. The total current price of industrial product logistics has increased by more than 20%. Excluding the price factor, a comparable increase of 15.9% is driven by the demand for industrial product logistics and the demand for people’s biological logistics. The total amount of social logistics increased by 14.8%, and the growth contribution rate reached 94.4%. The current price of imported logistics demand is growing rapidly, but excluding the price factor, the growth of physical logistics volume has slowed down; the growth rate of logistics demand for renewable resource goods reflecting reverse logistics exceeds 50%.
In the first half of the year, the total industrial product logistics increased by 15.9% year-on-year (down 1.3% in the first half of last year), and the two-year average growth rate was 7%, which was 0.2% faster than the first quarter. The total industrial product logistics increased by 8.3% in the month, maintaining a relatively fast growth rate. The rapid growth of total industrial product logistics is mainly due to the rebound in domestic demand and the surge in international demand.
The epidemic changes consumption habits, and the demand for people’s biological flow keeps growing
Data show that in the first half of the year, the total logistics of units and residents increased by 17.8% year-on-year, with an average growth of 13.9% in two years, which was much higher than the growth of total social logistics. In the first half of the year, the cumulative online retail sales of physical goods increased by 18.7%, and the two-year average growth rate was 16.5%, 1.1% faster than the first quarter; the online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 23.7% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, an increase of 1.8 points from the first quarter percentage point.
In addition, in the e-commerce logistics operation index in the first half of the year, the average value of the total business volume index and the rural business volume index was 127.4 points and 125.1 points, reflecting that the total e-commerce logistics demand and rural logistics demand orders increased by more than 25%.
Hu’s analysis believes that the epidemic has deeply changed consumption habits and promotional inertia, the demand for traditional food and clothing has slowed down, and health needs such as health care have increased. The peak season of manufacturers’ normalization of promotions has become smoother, while big data, 5G and artificial intelligence promote consumption scenarios deep integration, the surge in home office life scenarios, accelerated the recovery of residents’ online consumption demand.
Strategic role of logistics continues to strengthen
Looking forward to the second half of the year, the international and domestic circulation will be further liberalized, and personnel exchanges and cross-border activities will become more frequent. However, the risk of epidemics and blockages in logistics links cannot be ignored.
Hu Enthal believes that in the second half of the year, the congestion of overseas ports and other nodes will not be completely relieved in a short time, and the epidemic prevention and control will remain normal. Therefore, the security role of logistics is more prominent, and the basic and strategic role continues to increase.
Hu Enthal said that based on the base of the previous year, the logistics growth of the whole year is expected to be “high before and low”. The growth rate of logistics demand, logistics business income, and business scale will slow down in the third and fourth quarters. The annual growth rate is 9-10%.
Hu Yan believes that in the second half of the year, the continued recovery of logistics requires blessings in terms of increased investment, policy incentives, supply chain development, and boosting demand:
One is to increase investment in logistics infrastructure. Continue to increase investment in the upgrading and expansion of highways, railways, water ports and aviation, strengthen short-board construction in agricultural logistics, national hubs, and cold chain logistics, promote the organic connection of urban and rural distribution systems and logistics hubs, and accelerate the construction of digital infrastructure in the logistics field. Quality logistics supply responds to demand.
The second is to simultaneously promote policy incentives and market corrections to optimize the market environment. Continue to promote the implementation of documents such as the deep integration of the two industries, the pilot supply chain, the high-quality development of logistics, the integration of transportation and logistics, the construction of multimodal transport, cold chain and rural logistics network, and the efforts to solve the problems of access, land, taxes, annual inspections, etc. to reduce the burden on the company’s business operations, and effectively improve the company’s policy perception and participation.
The third is to improve the efficiency of the industrial supply chain, strengthen the deep integration of the industrial manufacturing industry and the upstream and downstream enterprises of the supply chain, improve the logistics efficiency of the supply chain, and reduce the cost of the entire industry chain.
The fourth is to further boost demand. With the increase of residents’ income and the deepening of the logistics network layout, there is still a vast space for urban and rural e-commerce logistics consumption. Industrial logistics demand accounts for 90%. It is necessary to focus on high-quality industrial development and improve quality and efficiency, and release industrial logistics demand with high-quality supply.