As we all know, in April this year, due to Trump’s announcement of sanctions against Russians, aluminum prices soared. This has created a huge impact on the global aluminum supply chain and directly pushed up the cost of global light metal producers.
The head of the mining group South32 said that as the supply situation becomes more and more tense, the price of alumina, the key material for manufacturing aluminum, may reach a new high before the end of the year.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of alumina has skyrocketed by 60%, and in May it set a record of $650 per ton. Although the overseas alumina has dropped slightly, the price is still firm, about $640/ton. The expectation of rising alumina prices will further boost the price of electrolytic aluminum (from alumina electrolysis).
Just yesterday, the price of aluminum in the three-month delivery of the London Metal Exchange also climbed 1.2% to close at $2095 per ton. Alcoa once rose 4.1%, the biggest intraday gain in the next month. Once soared 7.2%.
With Trump’s restrictions on Rusal’s restrictions approaching, and the most promising Australian supply market has also seen a huge “crack”, the production of Brazilian aluminum business Alunorte factory disrupted, disrupting the global aluminum market supply. Rhythm.
The Brazilian authorities also previously asked the local aluminum business Alunorte to cut production capacity by 50%, which further aggravated the global supply shortage of alumina.
On this occasion, China’s export of aluminum to the global market in August surged to its highest level in more than three years.
According to the sea (closed) data released by China on Saturday, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and related aluminum products in China increased to 517,000 tons in August, close to 520,000 tons in July, the highest level in more than three years.
From June to August this year, China’s aluminum exports exceeded 1.5 million tons, a record high for three consecutive months. At the same time, the export volume in the first eight months of this year has increased by 15% compared with the same period last year.
Affected by the disruption of supply of Alcoa Corp.’s factory in Australia, China is continuing to increase exports of alumina (aluminum raw materials), and shipments may continue to expand; from May to July this year, China’s aluminum exports total More than 300,000 tons, compared with only about 11,000 tons in the same period last year.
At present, Russell President Oleg Deripaska is still continuing to negotiate with the US authorities to try to lift the ban. At the same time, buyers of aluminum products are still rushing to buy aluminum products to prevent the negotiations from getting worse.
Energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie said that if the US continues to implement RUSAL in October, the price of aluminum will face the “end of the world” situation, when the price may exceed the price of aluminum in April, reaching 7 years. High Point.
Metal Mining Vice President Julian Keitel also said in an interview with Bloomberg that there is a deficit in markets outside China. If Rusal cannot supply metal, there will be a “mass shortage” in the market.
According to insiders of RUSAL, “If the system cannot be lifted in the future, then after the contract expires on October 1, the products used by the company for the external market will be recalled and re-stocked. Considering 80% of RUSAL. Production capacity is sold to overseas markets, which is not only for the company, but also for the global aluminum market.”