The impact of the overall trade pattern between China and ASEAN is not obvious

Dr. Li Hao, a researcher at the China-ASEAN Regional Development Collaborative Innovation Center, said that the epidemic would lead to a decline in China-ASEAN import and export trade. “Because of the epidemic, China ’s consumption has slowed sharply, and sluggish demand will necessarily affect ASEAN countries that are highly dependent on foreign trade. From the perspective of the value chain, China is still a major supplier in the region. The import trade between raw materials and intermediate products has weakened. Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and other countries in the region with relatively high levels of supply chain correlation will be relatively affected. “Li Hao believes that for Guangxi, Yunnan, etc. Border trade with bordering ASEAN countries will also be strongly impacted.

At present, the border trade at the China-Myanmar Mujie port has stalled, and the daily direct trade loss is estimated at more than 14 million US dollars.

But Li Hao also pointed out that the impact of the epidemic on investment and industry may not be obvious. “The delay in manufacturing production due to quarantine measures, etc., will increase the pressure on regional supply chains and increase costs in the short term. However, as the epidemic eases and is lifted, the entire Asia-Pacific region’s production system can quickly return to normal. Therefore, I personally judge that the industrial chain transfer phenomenon expected in some western countries is unlikely to occur. “

In response, the latest research report released by the ASEAN and China-Japan-Korea Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) predicts that although the new crown pneumonia epidemic will affect the economic and financial markets in this region. But everything is temporary.

China ’s contribution to the regional and global economy has continued to increase in recent years. It is a major leader in economic growth among the “ASEAN 10 + 3” (ASEAN 10 + China, Japan, and South Korea), and it is also involved in regional economic integration and supply chain cooperation. China is growing closer and sharing growth dividends with other countries. There is no doubt that the new epidemic at this time will also have spillover effects on economic growth and financial markets in the Asian region. The report believes that the impact of the epidemic is still short-term, and manufacturing capacity catch-up may quickly make up for losses in the first quarter, and with the arrival of the epidemic inflection point, a “V-shaped reversal” can be expected.

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