The “replacement effect” under the epidemic

The "replacement effect" under the epidemic

Several analysts said that the main reason behind the data is that China’s manufacturing capacity continues to improve during the epidemic, while the production capacity in developed regions such as Europe and the United States has been restricted due to repeated epidemics, and the supply capacity has been difficult to repair.

Zhang Yi, the chief economist of Zhonghai Shengrong, reminded that despite the overall relatively weak external demand and strong domestic demand growth, the characteristics of strong exports and weak imports have appeared.

Zhang Yi believes that there are three main reasons:

First, the difference in epidemic control has caused China’s supply capacity to be much higher than that of foreign countries, and exports have produced obvious substitution effects. At the same time, insufficient foreign supply capacity has also affected imports;

Second, under the impact of the epidemic, commodity prices have been sluggish, which has depressed the number of imports to a certain extent;

Third, the effect of import substitution in high-end manufacturing, medicine and other fields has appeared.